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diff --git a/posts/2015-01-02-on-video-games.org b/posts/2015-01-02-on-video-games.org deleted file mode 100644 index d849a4b..0000000 --- a/posts/2015-01-02-on-video-games.org +++ /dev/null @@ -1,80 +0,0 @@ -Some times ago I had a very short conversation with -[[https://twitter.com/maddingue][Maddingue]] about what could be the -future of video games. Since then I've been thinking a little bit more -about it. - -There's a possibility that things will change quickly and a lot for the -consoles, and I believe that we will move toward streaming platforms -quickly. Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Amazon have the resources to make -this possible. This also shows why Facebook spent a lot of money on -Oculus. - -Still, streaming has its own challenges (read -[[http://www.dormando.me/2014/11/09/3ds_dqx/][dormando's post]] on what -he had to do to get a smooth game experience with DQX on 3DS) : latency, -lag, you need a fast and always on internet connection, etc. - -We already know that Nintendo is already exploring this market with -remakes of some of its games on the DS. Sony tried with Gaikai, -unsuccessfully so far. They service is running and available (at least -in north America) but I don't know anyone using it. - -This generation of console (PS4 and xbox one) is growing faster than any -previous generation. Sales for the PS4 are amazing, and even if -Microsoft is lagging behind, the xbox one is selling extremely well -compared to the xbox 360. - -But it might be hard for MS to catch up. Because there's already a lot -of PS4 outside, some publishers might decide to focus on this platform -instead. Developing a game to support two or three platforms is very -expensive for them, and if the majority of players are on one platform, -why bother. Also it seems that the PS4 is easier to develop on (it was -not the case on the PS3, so Sony has learned from this error), and is -more powerful. - -Now, MS also have the resources to announce in two years that they have -a new and inexpensive console to play games streamed from their platform -(Azure). We can even imagine that they offer it for free if you take a 2 -or 3 years subscription to the xbox live. In this scenario, Sony would -not be able to compete: they don't have the cash, and I really doubt -that Gaikai is going to be ready anytime soon. - -Let's take a look at the four other giants now: Google, Amazon, Facebook -and Apple. They all build phones, tablets, and devices that you plug -into your TV. They also have huge cloud infrastructure, and know how to -distribute content that way. - -The thing that is not clear to me is how publisher would join. Right -now, all the companies provide their own SDK and if you want your game -to work on different devices, you have to develop different version of -the games for each device. It's in the interest of the constructor/cloud -providers, but not the publishers, and this can't scale. What they might -end up doing is to provide a SDK to create a light client for each -platform (android, iOS, windows, Oculus), and the publisher can get his -game running on the cloud infrastructure of his choice (e.g: Google -Compute or AWS). Cloud providers will compete on the infrastructure -(fast platform, a lot of -[[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point_of_presence][POP]], etc). This -could also helps issues that we saw this year, where publishers are -releasing a game but they don't have enough servers to accept all the -players on day one. - -The [[https://www.oculus.com/][Oculus Rift]] is going to be a huge game -changer, but for now it still requires a PC to play, and a lot of people -either don't have one, or don't have one powerful enough to play games. -If the game can be rendered in the cloud and just be streamed to the -oculus, everybody with an internet connection can play games. - -This also “fix” an old an annoying problem for gamers: -retrocompatibility. If we stop developing games for specific hardware, -but instead just for PCs, either on Linux or Windows, and all we have is -a stream, it should be easier to play a game in 10 years that it is -today. - -I might be totally wrong on this. But my gut tells me that's where we're -heading. We've already started to move all the computation in the cloud, -video gaming is the next step (and it's one of the last because of it's -complexity). - -Here's my prediction: the move will come from the new players -(Google/Amazon/FB/Apple) and it will be there in less than 5 years. |